Over the past few years, some in the tech press have expressed the notion that a new device category will replace the smartphone, as if it's inevitable. Will it be the AR/VR headset or some other advanced AI wearable? The idea is like the one about tablets ushering in the post-PC era. Well, PCs are still trucking along. And though we've reached "peak smartphone", I'm pretty sure it's here to stay.
From Cars to Smartphones
I seriously doubt smartphones will be torn from the clutches of most folks for a long time. Like a century. Why? Because smartphones are like cars.
The car makes people more mobile. The smartphone does likewise. Personal mobile vehicles have been around for over a century. They've seen various advances yet remain basically the same: an engine and four wheels. Personal mobile smart devices are likewise here to stay. They've seen advances yet are about the same as always: a glass rectangle.
Society runs on cars and roads. Now our culture also runs on smartphones and apps. Like roadways are to cars, the internet (information superhighway) is to smartphones, maximizing the utility of apps. My employer recently required that each employee install an app on their smartphone to authenticate and remote into work. But doesn't that assume everyone owns a smartphone?
Cars and smartphones give people two key things: personal transportation and personal (tele-)communication. They've become ubiquitous staples in daily life (for better and for worse). The smartphone is arguably more important or of greater use than the car. If you had to give up one, would you give up owning a car or owning a smartphone?
What about wearables?
Wearables like the smartwatch or mixed-reality headset are variations of the smartphone. But their weaknesses prevent them from usurping the total rule of the smartphone. Smartwatch displays are too small. And headsets or glasses are things that most people would rather not strap onto their heads or cover their faces with. Remember the short-lived fad of 3D TV? Sorry, no fancy goggles for the masses.
Recently, a company called Humane unveiled a new smart wearable called, "ai pin." Basically, it's a smartphone without a display at all. Its extra-smart voice assistant is supposed to offset the lack of a screen. If the smartphone is like the car, then the ai pin is like a bicycle. It may have a place, but it won't replace anything.
Smartphones aren't stepping stones to the next cool revolutionary gadget that might make people rave and investors rich. I really think smartphones have a permanence like cars have had for many decades. And like the robust industry surrounding cars, smartphones also have a big supportive industry (cases, accessories, apps, etc) that will likely persist for generations.
Having debuted less than twenty years ago and being quickly and firmly established, it's premature at best to talk about smartphones as if they're about to be replaced by the Next Big Thing. Such talk sounds like the wish to be at the tech forefront in order to reap the first and best fruits of what might be next.
If anything, it seems like that would be a combo of crypto, NFT, metaverse, 3D, AR/VR, wearable, IoT, spatial, ambient, and quantum computing, and of course A.I. Maybe all those crammed into one device together can be strong enough to overthrow the reign of the smartphone. But I doubt it.
We have planes, helicopters, and drones, yet flying cars are still not a thing. So why is there talk like replacing smartphones is a given, yet there's not a whisper that cars are bound to be replaced? Cars may become electric, smart, or autonomous, but we'll still have personal mobile vehicles with four wheels and an engine. Likewise, smartphones may gain more A.I., they all might even fold in half, but we'll still have personal mobile devices with rectangular glass displays.